It’s going up tonight!

2022-06-10 0 By

International oil prices this cycle (since January 31) have reached their highest level since September 2014.The price of gasoline and diesel is expected to rise by about 200 yuan per ton, equivalent to about 0.16 yuan and 0.17 yuan per liter of 92# gasoline and 0# diesel respectively.In its latest monthly report, the International Energy Agency (IEA) said OPEC+ ‘continued underperformance in meeting production targets has slowed the pace of supply growth.’Global oil inventories are already at multi-year lows and OPEC+ surplus capacity continues to fall, leaving the oil market with little cushion.OPEC’s monthly output rose by just 64,000 b/d in January from the previous month, with declines in Venezuela and Libya dragging down the group’s overall output growth, according to the OPEC monthly report published in February.At the same time, recent production performance suggests that Saudi Arabia is not willing to increase production to compensate for some OPEC members’ difficulties in raising output.Over the past year, efforts by OECD countries to release strategic oil reserves have failed to halt the decline in commercial oil stocks, according to the IEA.In December 2021, OECD commercial oil stocks plunged by 60 million barrels to 2.68 billion barrels, 255 million barrels below the 5-year average and the lowest level in nearly seven years.Driven by tight fundamentals and heightened geopolitical risks, the main contract prices of Brent and WTI crude oil futures both broke the $95 / barrel mark on February 14, 2022.In this pricing cycle, the change rate of a basket of crude oil continues to run in a positive direction, and the positive range has been significantly amplified in recent days.According to data released by Xinhua Oil Price System on February 16, the average price change rate of a package of crude oil on February 15 was 4.45%.According to this calculation, it is expected that at 24:00 on February 17th, the domestic gasoline and diesel prices will be raised by about 200 yuan per ton.Graph: the Xinhua News Agency issued since the this cycle of oil price system package of the average price of crude oil rate data source: China’s natural Gas information terminal (E) – Gas system since this year, domestic retail fuel price pricing has experienced two window, two are raised, domestic gasoline and diesel prices have per ton increase 655 yuan and 630 yuan respectively.In the wholesale market, the rising international oil price has boosted the domestic market to a certain extent. In terms of demand, there is a replenishment demand for gasoline after the holiday, while diesel demand has not started yet. The wholesale market of refined oil products has risen as a whole, in which the increase of gasoline is more obvious.According to the wholesale prices of gasoline and diesel in China jointly released by China Economic Information Agency, China Petroleum Economic and Technical Research Institute and Shanghai Oil and Gas Trading Center, on February 15, the average wholesale prices of 92# gasoline and diesel (including low freezing point) were 9,449 yuan/ton and 7,884 yuan/ton respectively.Compared with February 7 (the first working day after the Spring Festival holiday), the price rose 152 yuan/ton and 18 yuan/ton respectively.Looking ahead, geopolitical risks are still uncertain, but the tight fundamentals support oil prices, and it is expected that international oil prices will continue to fluctuate at a high level.Source: Xinhua