Rose!But continuous shrinkage rebound hidden worries structural market in two points need to pay attention to

2022-05-02 0 By

Viewpoint: The PMI data for two consecutive months show that the economy has picked up somewhat, but the overall situation is still negative, and the downward pressure is still large.However, the rebound in data may provide a short-term boost to the market.In addition, supported by relatively stable fundamentals and liquidity, the overall market remains on a sound footing.After the central bank cut reserve requirement ratio and LPR in the fourth quarter of last year, the central bank lowered MFL and reverse repo rates in the beginning of the year, gradually starting the monetary easing cycle. With abundant liquidity expectation, the overall market is still boosted.In the short term, geopolitical tensions eased and sentiment rose.And the weight of the stock adjustment came to an end, the index ushered in a rebound resonance, market repair market has opened, but in the continuous shrinkage still need to pay attention to the bottom of the repeatability.Under the rebound of all overseas markets, both Shanghai and Shenzhen markets opened higher today, after the opening of the shock up, financial and infrastructure sector comeback, especially infrastructure stocks trading under the Overall performance of The Shanghai index.And the weight of the stock stability, gem also stable performance, the three major indexes in a rebound resonance, short-term rebound is still the basis.On the disk, the building decoration led the rise, construction materials, steel, machinery and equipment and environmental protection, and most of the plate up, only agriculture, forestry, husbandry and fishing, military and other small lower.After several big weight stocks stop falling, gem ushered in a rebound.With the slowdown of overseas geopolitical conflicts, the global stock market rebounded and a-share sentiment began to pick up. With the boost from both inside and outside, the short-term repair market began.However, since yesterday’s rebound, there have been a few worries, the most worrying of which is shrinking trading volumes.And the delay in volume here is directly related to the downward pressure of economic growth and the interference of overseas market fluctuations.As we all know, last year, the market transaction many times over trillion, and this transaction was once regarded as a normal market.However, before and after the Spring Festival, the market transaction has shrunk to a trillion, and the contraction of the transaction is accompanied by market adjustment and weakness.However, despite the recent rebound in the market, the volume is still not effectively released, still maintained under the trillion, which gives the rebound hidden trouble, at least that the strength of the rebound here is not too big, large probability events are still repeated, if you can not make up, there is even the possibility of high fall and retracement.However, even if there is a retreat here, but the market stage bottom trend has been relatively obvious.On the one hand, the market is supported by steady growth and boosted by the opening of the easing cycle.On the other hand, the low valuation of finance and infrastructure and the steady growth of the positive sector continued to strengthen, forming a support for the market;In addition, growth stocks back to slow sentiment, continue to kill space is limited.Overall, the current policy to stabilize growth will continue to exert momentum, and the results are expected to show further.With the start of the monetary easing cycle, liquidity easing expectations are increasing and the fund base is relatively clear.In the mood and repeated but overall rebound, the market repeatedly bottom and the overall repair of the market is worth looking forward to.However, the current economic growth pressure is great, the overseas market is still unstable, the overall market shows a structural market, need to pay attention to two points: first, before the market is clearly stable, do not recommend heavy position operation;Secondly, grasp the stage market.Currently benefit from the monetary easing under the valuation of the repair market, and for the growth of the high boom varieties, after continuous adjustment also has a certain cost performance, late is worth paying attention to.